Meteorologists with the Canadian Hurricane Centre said today it's still a 50 per cent chance Hurricane Gonzalo will make landfall in eastern Newfoundland, but added there will be high winds and waves regardless of the storm track.
Models vary on the exact path that Gonzalo, which is currently a Category 4 hurricane, will take as it moves into Canadian waters.
Chris Fogarty, a meteorologist with the centre, said the there will be inevitable storm surges of up to three metres in areas of coastal Newfoundland, including the Avalon Peninsula, Trepassey and Placentia Bay.
There will still be ocean swells in some areas even if Gonzalo doesn't make landfall, Fogarty said.
If the storm tracks into Placentia Bay, Fogarty said it could move over to the eastern Avalon region, including to St. John's, with a 50/50 chance of landfall. Fogarty added wind gusts could reach 130 to 140 km/h if that occurs, adding that is the western-most scenario. The area will be put on a tropical storm watch.
Gonzalo is expected to weaken to a post-tropical storm by the time it passes Nova Scotia, with an expectation of ocean swells as high as three metres.
The storm will then move on to southeastern Newfoundland, where there is potential for storm-related damage.
Fogarty said Gonzalo is a fast-moving storm system, and heavy rain along the Avalon could be very short-lived, but very intense, adding "75 mm is pretty much the upper end" of what to expect over the weekend system.
Very high winds are expected on the Grand Banks, which could have implications for mariners and the offshore oil industry.
For the offshore of Newfoundland, Fogarty said there is a potential for wave heights to reach between 12 and 15 metres as Gonzalo tracks into the Grand Banks, which could reach the top of offshore installations like Hibernia.
Fogarty added the centre will brief offshore companies on what to expect, and they will have to make their own decisions about necessary safety precautions.
Current projections have Gonzalo arriving in Newfoundland early on Sunday morning — somewhere between 3 and 6 a.m.
Gonzalo is expected to drop as much as 75 mm of rain over eastern Newfoundland by the time it passes on Sunday.
However, there is a wide variance in various models that are predicting Gonzalo's path and thus its impact.
"The track is so critical," said CBC meteorologist Ryan Snoddon, noting that if the centre of Gonzalo falls away from the coastline, the possibility for damage will be significantly reduced.
"That would keep the strongest hurricane-force winds offshore."
Snoddon noted that one weather model has a current projection of 40 to 50 mm of rain falling in just six hours, apart from whatever else may fall. Another model, he noted, had just 10 in the same period.
Preparations were well underway by Friday for the advance of the storm. Newfoundland Power, which has had to deal with outages in prior storms, said it is ready to act.
"We're making sure that all of our pieces of equipment are up to date," said Karen McCarthy, the utility's manager of corporate relations and communications.
"We make sure we have enough fuel in place at all of our locations for our trucks, for our mobile generators, for example, which we take depending on where there's an issue."
The Newfoundland and Labrador government advised homeowners to have an emergency kit — including such items as food, medications and extra batteries — that would last for 72 hours.
Residents were also reminded to charge electronic devices, ensure that sump pumps are in working order, clear debris from household drains and ensure that lawn furniture and other outdoor items are stored properly when high winds begin.
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